Bitcoin's price behavior has exhibited a consistent pattern around US presidential elections. In the two to three months leading up to these events, Bitcoin has typically experienced significant corrections, followed by a subsequent rally. This trend was observed in 2012, 2016, and 2020, as highlighted by Bitfinex analysts.

Several factors contribute to this pattern. First, the timing of presidential elections often coincides with the end-of-year period, which is traditionally volatile for financial markets. This seasonality affects all markets, including Bitcoin. Second, the uncertainty surrounding election outcomes can create a risk-averse environment, impacting both Bitcoin and traditional markets. Bitcoin's increasing correlation with the S&P 500 further amplifies this effect.

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced substantial gains following presidential elections. After the 2016 election, Bitcoin's price surged as market certainty returned. A similar trend occurred in 2020. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation. While Bitcoin's movements align with election cycles, other factors such as US monetary policy, global economic conditions, and technological advancements in the crypto space also play significant roles in shaping its price behavior.

As the 2024 election approaches, market participants are closely monitoring for similar patterns, especially given the recent all-time highs of the S&P 500 and expectations of rate cuts.

Additionally, the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket has been used as a gauge for the US elections. Despite Donald Trump's initial lead, Kamala Harris has been gaining ground and currently holds a slight advantage. This dynamic highlights the evolving political landscape and its potential impact on Bitcoin's price.